Policy Horizons Canada’s “Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question” (2025) projects a 2040 scenario where Canada’s foundational promise: that hard work guarantees upward mobility, collapses under disruptive forces.
Education loses its equalizing power as soaring costs and rigid programs exclude all but the wealthy. AI reshapes labor markets, devaluing human skills and concentrating high-paying opportunities among those who can afford premium AI tools. Housing transitions into an intergenerational asset, with ownership limited to families who can pool wealth or secure multi-generational mortgages, exacerbating renter-owner conflicts. Virtual Segregation: online tools and virtual worlds are increasingly separating people by wealth, making it harder to move outside your class. This pushes society toward a system where family money matters more than hard work, and temporary gigs replace real careers.
The fallout could destabilize Canada’s economy and social fabric. A shrinking consumer base may concentrate capital among older elites, stifling innovation and triggering union-led strikes. Mental health crises would surge amid widespread financial insecurity, while skilled workers emigrate for better opportunities, worsening labor shortages in critical sectors like healthcare. Grassroots alternatives (co-ops, foraging, barter economies) might emerge, but these could undermine tax systems and regulatory frameworks.
While not inevitable, this future demands urgent policy reforms from affordable housing to adaptive education and ethical AI oversight, to safeguard Canada’s tradition of mobility.
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